地铁车站人员安全疏散仿真理论分析与应用

地铁车站的紧急疏散对保障地铁运营安全应对突发事件至关重要。在对比分析人群疏散行为仿真的理论与方法后,针对上海市某地铁车站设计要求,采用疏散模拟软件,考虑在不同灾害场景对该车站的人员疏散问题进行仿真模拟分析。结果表明:车站内疏散人群的具体位置对疏散时间和出口的利用率影响较大;人群疏散过程中,是否采取工作人员的合理引导及指示等人工干预方法对人群疏散路线的选择、节省疏散时间、保障逃生安全等十分重要。     

Field-scale operation of methane biofiltration systems to mitigate point source methane emissions

Methane biofiltration (MBF) is a novel low-cost technique for reducing low volume point source emissions of methane (CH₄). MBF uses a granular medium, such as soil or compost, to support the growth of methanotrophic bacteria responsible for converting CH₄ to carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water (H₂O). A field research program was undertaken to evaluate the potential to treat low volume point source engineered CH₄ emissions using an MBF at a natural gas monitoring station. A new comprehensive three-dimensional numerical model was developed incorporating advection-diffusive flow of gas, biological reactions and heat and moisture flow. The one-dimensional version of this model was used as a guiding tool for designing and operating the MBF. The long-term monitoring results of the field MBF are also presented. The field MBF operated with no control of precipitation, evaporation, and temperature, provided more than 80% of CH₄ oxidation throughout spring, summer, and fall seasons. The numerical model was able to predict the CH₄ oxidation behavior of the field MBF with high accuracy. The numerical model simulations are presented for estimating CH₄ oxidation efficiencies under various operating conditions, including different filter bed depths and CH₄ flux rates. The field observations as well as numerical model simulations indicated that the long-term performance of MBFs is strongly dependent on environmental factors, such as ambient temperature and precipitation.     

盆栽植物净化甲苯废气

采用动态模拟法模拟盆栽植物对甲苯污染气体的净化,考察吊兰和金绿萝两种盆栽植物在净化甲苯过程中,甲苯入口浓度与植物对甲苯净化速率的关系。结果表明,2种盆栽植物对低浓度甲苯废气具有长期明显的净化效果。在相同条件下,吊兰茎叶和土壤的净化速率优于金绿萝体系。在植物的耐受浓度范围内,2种植物茎叶和土壤的净化速率均随着甲苯入口浓度的升高而增大,且白天的净化速率明显高于黑夜时的净化速率。在实验过程中,吊兰土壤体系的降解率随着甲苯浓度的升高逐渐下降;金绿萝土壤体系的降解率基本不受甲苯入口浓度的影响。吊兰盆栽体系的降解率明显大于金绿萝的降解率。两种植物盆栽体系的降解率随甲苯进口浓度的影响可以忽略。     

The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus‐Based Watershed Modeling Approach for Multiple Scales and Conditions

The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL^®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.     

Assessing the socio-economic impacts of green/blue space,urban residential and road infrastructure projects in the Confluence (Lyon): a hedonic pricing simulation approach

Urban green/blue spaces are put under pressure as urban areas grow, develop and evolve. It is increasingly recognized, however, that green/blue spaces provide important ecosystem services, stimulate higher real estate prices and prevent flooding problems. This paper aims to assess and compare the socio-economic impacts of potential green/blue space, urban residential and road infrastructure development scenarios in the Lyon Confluence project area (France), using the Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development (SULD) hedonic pricing simulation model. Results show four major tendencies regarding the value-added of green/blue spaces in urban landscapes: (1) cities become more compact; (2) population densities increase; (3) real estate values rise; and (4) demographic distribution patterns change. The magnitude of these impacts depends, however, on the quality and size of the intervention, the social classes attracted to the intervention area and on the location of the intervention relative to existing residential areas, urban centres, road infrastructure and environmental amenities.     

中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。     

基于系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

产业用水结构的欠合理一定程度上制约着社会的发展,如何科学评价产业用水情况,取得在经济效益、水资源和环境资源约束下的协调发展已成为目前区域社会经济发展面临与亟待解答的科学问题。以江苏省为例,提出了系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法,在构建反映产业结构、用水结构和排污结构的互动反馈的水资源综合利用系统动力学模型基础上,通过敏感性分析确定对系统影响较大的关键变量,运用投入产出分析技术,对江苏省各部门用水特性、排污特性和经济效益特性进行计算测度,由此构建了3种产业发展模拟方案。依据系统动力学模型输出结果,对2025年3种方案下的重点产业部门用水综合效用情况进行对比分析,进而优选出"节水治污型"方案,并最后提出保障方案实施的对策建议,为江苏省产业和用水结构调整提供决策依据。     

Complementarity of No‐Take Marine Reserves and Individual Transferable Catch Quotas for Managing the Line Fishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.     

混凝土结构使役环境中氯离子浓度控制系统设计

本文结合湖北省自然科学基金项目"混凝土结构使役环境的智能模拟(2008CDB396)",在前期"211工程"项目"单轴约束可调式混凝土温度应力试验机"研究基础上,针对现有混凝土耐久性试验机在侵蚀溶液注入与氯离子浓度控制环境的空白,采用C51单片机为控制器,设计了一种混凝土结构使役环境中氯离子浓度控制系统,用于自动调节混凝土耐久性实验,模拟实验环境箱内的侵蚀溶液氯离子浓度,保证混凝土耐久性实验试件所处环境氯离子浓度稳定在设定的范围。系统采用溶液缓冲调节与循环注入方式,控制单元采用直读式离子浓度控制器,信号采集更方便。本系统不仅结构简洁,工作可靠性高,还能减少人力浪费,提高运行经济性。     

圆柱形无约束气云爆炸高温效应研究

为了分析无约束可燃气云爆炸产生的高温伤害效应，建立了相应的数学模型，利用有限体积的离散方法，对无约束空间内甲烷浓度10％、高径比为1的圆柱形可燃气云爆炸的瞬态温度场进行了数值研究。研究结果表明，圆柱形可燃气云爆炸的温度场呈不对称性分布，靠近地面处足最危险区域，高温可能达到的最大怪直高度和最大水平距离分别约为圆柱体高的2倍和半径的3．2倍。对数值模拟结果的数据进行多项式拟合，得到了圆柱形可燃气云爆炸场最高温度随水平距离、初温及参与爆炸气云质量的函数关系式，给可燃气云爆炸灾害的预测及防护提供了科学依据。